Saturday, March 24, 2018

Time To Start Long Term Investment In Bank Nifty ETF Or Reliance Banking Fund (G)

Respected Readers,
Thank you for your continuous love and support to this blog. In my earlier article of 27 Aug 2017, I told that nifty is overvalued and I closed my SIP due to overvaluation of stocks.
If you do not read this earlier article then before continuing with this article, I advise reading the earlier article carefully, please read it here:- 
You find at the final conclusion in above article, I told 
"You no need to close your existing SIP, Simply run your SIP when market will down and SRNTV touch 0.94 I will inform you through this blog or through my app so that time simply add some more units in your portfolio and whenever SRNTV going above 1.12 then I again inform through this blog and my app so you can book partial profits in your units." 
Now I am happy to inform you that bank nifty SRNTV is touch to 0.94 So this is the time to start an SIP in bank nifty.
Here I share the Excel sheet of bank nifty historical data where you find how I calculate bank nifty SRNTV:-
Now I Chose "Reliance Banking Fund (G)" for our long-term investment because of this mutual fund based on Bank Nifty and launched on 21 May 2003.
As per my mutual fund selecting criteria's ( Read here:-How To Select Best Mutual Funds Or ELSS: Top Mutual Funds Schemes, ELSS )
Reliance Banking Fund (G) has largest fund size in banking and financial sector mutual funds.
So as per my rule of SRNTV, I invest 1/5 of my desired investment amount in this mutual fund.
Here I want to invest total 1,00,000 rupees in Indian banking sector because I think bank nifty corrected till my SRNTV level and now SRNTV of bank nifty is 0.94 then this is the best time to invest in the banking sector.
Now I further divide this money into 2 parts I want to invest my  INR 50000 in the banking sector mutual fund and want to invest 50,000 in banking sector ETF.
So I invest 1/5 of 50000=10000  lum sum in Reliance Banking Fund (G) plan.
Now as per rule given in SRNTV article I need to wait for more correction when this ratio down till 0.85, 0.76, 0.67,0.58 to invest my next 10-10-10-10 thousand parts.
But what happens if bank nifty recover from here?
I think you knew I am so clever to deal with market uncertainty, so I am also starting an INR 2000 per month SIP for next 10 months.
If bank nifty will recover from here and my next trigger levels of SRNTV will not come then due to this 2000 per month SIP (of 10 months) my 20000 also invested gradually in this banking mutual fund.
Now with remaining 20000, I wait for these levels of  0.85, 0.76, 0.67, 0.58 and invest 5000-5000-5000-5000 lump sum amount if these levels come.
Otherwise, I am happy with my SIP, and if 10 months complete and these levels do not come then, I increase the time period of this SIP  for further 10 months so as this is a total 20 months (near 2-year time frame investment plan) in bank nifty.
Now we choose one Bank Nifty ETF, ETF means the exchange-traded fund which holds bank nifty companies in same constituents of bank nifty.
We again use same rule " Select ETF with largest asset size."

And we find that Kotak Banking ETF has the largest asset size of  3676.59cr. So peoples who invest 3676.59 crores in banking ETF are not foolish.
I again follow the same processer means invest 10,000 lump sum in Kotak Banking ETF.
I start a 2000 per month SIP for 10 months and if SRNTV of bank nifty down at levels of 0.85, 0.76, 0.67, 0.58 then I again invest 5000-5000-5000-5000 lump sum amount in every point otherwise increase SIP period with the remaining amount.
Watch this Video (With English CC) for more details ( If you do not understand Hindi Please Enable English Subtitles):-

After 2 years in April 2020, I again update on this blog that what I earn or lost with this method.
Now It is your turn to share your views in comments.
Discloser:- Author of this article is not a registered mutual fund adviser but I Mahesh Chander Kaushik Author of this article is an existing research analyst and passed NISM certification for research analysts. I am also registered with SEBI(RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014 ( SEBI Registration Number INH 100000908 ) hereby disclose about my financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest:- 1 I am also investing in same ETF or mutual fund  so my personal interest is included in this fund 2. Me and my associates or relatives have not any actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company ( Kotak Banking Fund or Reliance Banking Fund  ). 3. Me and my associates or relatives have not any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. 4. Me and my associates or relatives have not received any type of compensation from the subject company(  Kotak Banking Fund or Reliance Banking Fund  ) in the past twelve months. 5. I am not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company( Kotak Banking Fund or Reliance Banking Fund  ). 6. I have been not engaged in market making activity for the subject company( Kotak Banking Fund or Reliance Banking Fund)

Disclaimer:- This is not an advisory service to buy or sell. The contents of “this research report” are only for educational purposes. No liability is accepted for any content in “this research report”. The author is neither a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time.The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions. Please read full disclaimer at the bottom of my blog.

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Use Sharegenius Ratio Of Nifty Technical Valuation To Buy Nifty Bees

Namaskar Friends,
Today I am going to share my new important research.
This research teaches you the technical valuation of nifty and with the help of this research you easily guess about the right time to buy a mutual fund or start fresh buying in shares. 
Generally Stock market corrects twice in every year but small investor unable to catch this buying opportunity. 

If you learn how to calculate technical valuation of nifty, then you easily catch both corrections points with the help of my method you also able to recognize overvaluation of the stock market. 
If we were able to recognize nifty undervaluation or overvaluation, then we use it to buy mutual fund units at a lower price or also able to buy blue chip stocks at the lower price. 
After this research, I am able to top up my SIP when ever market is down.
Because when my method show nifty is down, then I added some lump sum amount in my existing SIP.
If anyone has 1000/- per month SIP, then he/she need to invest additional 6000/- lump sum amount in every 6 months when my method recognizes a buying point in nifty.
And with the help of this method you can trade directly in Nifty, Many investors do not know how to buy nifty in cash? you may buy Reliance Nifty Bees ETF which traded like a share, One Unit of Reliance Nifty Bees ETF=1/10 of Nifty, For example, if nifty=9900 then price of ETF=990/- per unit. 
If you interested to learn more about nifty ETF then please visit this link:- (Hindi)
When I teach you how to recognize down and upper level of nifty then when the market traded at his down point you may buy nifty ETF or any mutual fund units. 
And when the market traded at the upper point you may sell them to earn profits. 
You may get 2 buying opportunity every year, but this is not fixed, in any particular year maybe you get only 1 buying opportunity or maybe get 2,4, or nil buying chance, 
I will give you practical examples from last 12 years. with the help of this method your risk is very low and when you understand this method "Stock Market is like a children's game for you" with the help of this method you earn money from nifty ETF or from mutual funds or buy shares at the lower price.
So If you do not understand the method, then please do not put the negative comment, first ask your concern in the comment, I got per day 400-500 comments and I try my best to reply most of them. First of all, you need to download historical price data of nifty. 
If you do not know how to download nifty price data then please watch this video:-

I provide my Excel sheets so download my Excel sheet from this link:-
I download last 12 years the historical price of nifty for the deep understanding of this theory. 
I think you remember that " Nifty may down twice in every year. 
It means every year market gives near 2 chance for fresh buying" Every year has 365 Days We minus 52 Sundays and 52 Saturdays from 365 because we need a near about figure that how many days market will open in a year? 
365 Days-52 Sundays= 313 Days
313 Days-52 Saturdays=261 Days
Now we minus near 13 market holidays like holy Deepawali Id ul zuha etc., we get final trading days
261 Days-13 Other Holidays=248 
So in a trading year near 248 days market will open and we need to find 2 downsides in every year, so we divided 248 by 2 and get 124 days figure. 
I hope you understand all things till this point, now we continue next step... 
This is a theoretical part so if you feel difficult to understand, then please do not worried I am also going to telling you practically. 
Now I going to telling my " Sharegenius Ratio of Nifty Technical Valuation" (SRNTV) which is equal to 
SRNTV=Close Price/124DMA 
If you see last 12 years Excel sheet which I provided in description box then you find in last 12 years this ratio never go above 1.46 and never down below 0.59 (however market is uncertain, and this may be possible in any year) 
We take an average of 1.46 and 0.59 which is near 1.03, So 1.03 is a basic Nifty SRNTV in last 12 year 
So now we assume that Nifty maximum upside is 0.45 points from this basic figure 1.03=1.03+0.45=1.48 and maximum downside is below 0.45 points from this basic figure 1.03 means 1.03-0.45=0.58 
I hope you understand till this point now I am going to tell how to use this ratio in stock trading or mutual funds units buying.
In last 12 years nifty maximum going 0.45 point above from 1.03 and maximum 0.45 down from 1.03 however, this is not a sure range, but nifty never broke this range in last 12 years. 
Now we divide this 0.45 by 5 because in want to average out 5 times to get full benefitted from this method Because in normal market year market will down near 0.09 from 1.03 and up near 0.09 from 1.03, 
If you see last 5-7 year data in my Excel sheet then you find market normally trade in 0.09+ and - range. 
But in 2008 Market fall badly and this ratio down till 0.59 so when market going to bear phase then it will down 0.45 points So if this will happen then we will need to average out 5 times means first we buy at 1.03-0.09=0.94 ratio 
For example, on 12 May 2017 nifty SRNTV ratio is =1.08 
So in future when nifty will correct and I find ratio will go down till If this ratio corrects till 0.94 then I invest my money in HDFC equity fund.
I recently closed my SIP of 4000 per month in this fund because I wait when SRNTV ratio correct till 0.94 I invest one time 24000/- in this fund. 
Normally you got only 0.09+ and 0.09- movement but in 2008 market was down badly and in 2009 it recovered sharply than this ratio gives movement till 0.45 points so we take a chance of 5 times average out in this situation It means we buy our first lot after 0.09 point fall from 1.03 but if market falls more we average out after 0.18, 0.27, 0.36 and in rarest condition 0.45 point fall.
 Normally It traded in a range of 0.09 high and 0.09 low for example on 12 May 2017 when our nifty traded near all-time high then It SRNTV=1.08 So on this higher valuation, I do not invest in mutual funds when this ratio correct till 0.94 then I start investing.
If you see last 12 year data then you find every year we got this type buying opportunity. 
So when this ratio correct till 0.94 I will not only invest in mutual funds but also buy some units of nifty ETF and sell them again when this ratio up till 1.12 (1.03+0.09=1.12).
Now theoretical part of this video ends. Now I tell you practical part of this theory if you do not understand, then please do not worry and take it seriously because If I write a book on this theory than I will earn huge royalty, but I do not want money from you I want to protect your money in stock market, so I provide it at free of cost. 
Watch this video for more clear understanding:- (Hindi Video with English Sub titles):-
Finally:-You no need to close your existing SIP, Simply run your SIP when market will down and SRNTV touch 0.94 I will inform you through this blog or through my app so that time simply add some more units in your portfolio and whenever SRNTV going above 1.12 then I again inform through this blog and my app so you can book partial profits in your units.

Friday, February 24, 2017

How To Select Best Mutual Funds Or ELSS: Top Mutual Funds Schemes & ELSS 2017

Respected Readers,
In this Article, I tell you "How to select a best mutual fund scheme?" or "How to choose an ELSS?"
I am also mentioning the name of top mutual funds schemes and top ELSS which are the best for starting a new SIP in 2017.
First of all, I want to ask one question from you.
"Have you invested in mutual funds or not?"
If your answer is "No."
Then where you invest your savings?
Now some of my followers say " I have not enough savings for investing?"
Others say "Mutual funds are slow and I invest my savings in bank fix deposits."
If your answer match with above 2 possible replies then you are a poor dad.
Why I use word "poor dad." 
Famous American author Robert Kiyosaki wrote a series of books in the name of rich dad I recommended to read one book of this series name " Rich Dad's Guide to Investing: What the Rich Invest in, That the Poor and the Middle Class Do Not."
If you did not read this book yet, then it is strongly recommended to read it here is the links to this book in English, Hindi, Marathi. Languages:-
If you do not wish to read above book, then please watch my Youtube  Hindi Video or English dubbed video for more understanding on this issue, videos links:-
Hindi Video:-

English Dubbed Video:-

Now the question is " How to select a best mutual fund scheme or ELSS?"
For choosing a best mutual fund scheme to remember these rules:-
1. Do not invest in NFO's: - Suppose there is 2 business man's one established his business 10 years ago, and since last 10 year he borrowings money from people and give them 18% returns on their investment. 
Because he has already a well-established infrastructure, and well-diversified business portfolio and he expertly knew how to invest people's borrowed money in his businesses and able to give them returns near 18%.
Now, the 2nd businessman who have no experience, no any current businesses set up ask your money and promise you that he will also set up a well-diversified business portfolio like the first person and he promises that he may me also able to give you same return in the long term. 
Then where you invest your money?
I knew your reply " I will go with the first person  who has already a well-established infrastructure, and well-diversified business portfolio and he expertly knew how to invest people's borrowed money in his businesses and able to give them returns near 18%."
Same happen in mutual funds so do not invest your money in an NFO (New Fund Offer) because in this market many funds available with 10 years+ track record with well-diversified portfolio then why you trap your money with a new fund?
As my past experience in initial 3 years new funds not perform well and I regularly warn my followers that they do not invest in IPO or NFO, for more details read this earlier article: -Time to Start SIP in Religare Invesco Pan European Equity Fund @ 8.96
So my first rule " Choose funds with 10 years+ track record."
2.Choose Diversified funds: - Some of the mutual funds invest only in large cap some invest only in mid-cap, and some invest only in small cap stocks. I think why we restricted our investment on market cap size. So choose diversified funds which invest money in all caps ( large cap, mid cap, and small cap companies).
3. Choose funds which provide 20%+ returns in last 5 years: - Bank FD give us near 8-9% annually returns, the index like Nifty Sensex growth rate near 15% annually so I will like to choose a fund who give 20%+ returns annually in last 5 years.
4. Choose fund size more than 5000 Cr.: -Please refer chapter 22 of my book "The Winning Theory In Stock Market" where I told how largest size funds able give large returns. 
Here I want to inform you about one good news. Some of my followers report that my books are highly priced, so they hesitate to buy a copy. Actually, I am not sold my books directly, and Indian importers import my books from USA and UK then sell it on Amazon India or Flipkart Etc.
So price set by the importer of the book, Now Indian edition of my both books published with Indian publisher and these Indian paperback editions are same as the imported paperback editions.
These Indian paperback editions now available at the reasonable price through Amazon India, Paytm, Flipkart, etc. here are the links for new followers:-
Paytm link for book 1 
Paytm link for book 2
Flipkart link for book 1
Flipkart link for book 2
Amazon India link for book 1
Amazon India link for book 2
Amazon India link for  Hindi book 1

Practically Selection Of Top Mutual Funds Schemes & ELSS 2017:-
Now I telling how you practically choose mutual funds schemes and ELSS from the help of moneycontrol site; open this link in your browser:-
Set criteria's as shown in this picture:-

Now click on "GO."
You see that moneycontrol select 30 funds based on above criteria's which looks like this pic:-

But here moneycontrol allow maximum fund size 1000 cr but as per my rule, we only select fund size over 5000 cr.
Second restriction, moneycontrol allow the age of fund maximum 5-year-old, but as per rule, we require fund age more than 10 years. So here we need hand-pick 10-year-old funds with 5000 cr plus fund size.
Here, with the help of above results, I hand picked these largest fund size funds which 10 years or more old:-
HDFC Equity Fund (G)
ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund (G)
Franklin India Prima Plus (G) 
So choose any one, two or all three of above schemes, always choose Growth option, Run this process every year and if you find your fund lost his position from top 3 then shift it with the new entry in your selection.
Top 3 ELSS 2017: - we run the same process and choose ELSS in fund category which looks like:-

Click on the "GO."
and with the help of results Here, with the help of above results, I hand picked these largest fund size funds which 10 years or elder:-
1-Axis Long Term Equity Fund (G)
2-Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS)(G)
3-HDFC Tax Saver (G)
Run this process every year and if you find your fund lost his position from top 3 then shift it with the new entry in your selection. 
I hope you understand what I want to say, now it is your term late me knew what you think about my work.Please share your comments, Regards
Discloser: - I am personally holding units of HDFC Equity Fund (G)
Suggested Reading: - Top Islamic Mutual Funds In India

Monday, August 8, 2016

How to Book Profits in Mutual Fund Growth or Dividend-Reinvestment Schemes SIP

Respected Readers, 

If you make a long term SIP in mutual fund growth or dividend reinvestment schemes and unfortunately the market is fall like 1992 2008 2013 2016, then most of your profit goes back and your portfolio value may down below your primary investment (principal investment). 
For example:- 
On 21 Jan 2013, 
Suppose you accumulated 1000 units of HDFC top 200 G mutual fund scheme, and your average buying price is 200 per unit, so your basic investment is 1000*200=INR 2,00,000 NAV of HDFC Top 200 Growth fund on 21 Jan 2013 was 234.759 So market value or value on NAV of your 1000 units was 1000*234.759=INR 2,34,759 
So on 21 Jan 2013, you are happy to see that you get INR 34759 Profit (17.37% Return) on your investment of INR 2,00,000.
Unfortunately, the market is fall and NAV of your mutual fund are also fall.
( For more details, please refer Chapter 24 of my book because I write this article give more insight on chapter 24 "How to Book Profits in Mutual Fund SIP" of my book "The Winning Theory in Stock Market"). 
So after this market fall as on 21 Aug 2013 NAV of HDFC Top 200 Growth fund was 187.204.
That time market value or NAV value of your units was:- 1000*187.204=1,87,204 
Now you lost all of your profit 34759 also lost your basic principal amount 12796 That time you worried that why not you sell your units on 21 Jan 2013. 
So I innovate a profit booking formula for mutual fund SIP. You read his method in chapter 24 of my book. 
Those who not buy my book, please refer this earlier article: - Sharegenius Formula of Mutual Fund Profit Booking 
As per this formula "When your total portfolio value grows 11% then book your 33% corpus and continue you’re SIP." 
Some of my followers still not understand this formula clearly and demand that I upload an excel sheet to clear this formula.
So I make an excel sheet of Last 5 Year 2000 per month SIP in HDFC Top 200 G Fund, In this excel sheet I show how you book your profits using my sharegenius formula download this sheet from this link:-
Now you may still argue that instead of profit booking if we continue to hold these units then we get more return if they compare profit booking of INR 22885.68 in above sheet.
So please remember:- 
1. Currently, the market is high, and when the market is correct then most of your notional profit also run away from your portfolio but if you book your profit 22885.68, then it never went in any situation. 
2. If we re-invest this total amount of INR 74576 (which we get through the selling of units see the last row in above excel sheet), then this amount also earn from bank FD or individual stocks. 
3. Finally, I have other revolutionary Idea that if you do not want to use this money INR 74576 which we get by selling of units. Then revert this formula and re-invest last profit booking again when your portfolio value down 11%. It means sell units when portfolio value rises 11% and reinvest this money when portfolio value down -11%. 
I make this excel sheet again with this reverse sharegenius formula, and you wonder that this time, our total profit is INR 41127.29 
Download this 2nd excel sheet here:- 
Please remember this formula is only for growth schemes and dividend re-investment plans, new readers, please read this article to understand that why I prefer dividend reinvestment instead of growth plans:- 
One other thing that If you want regular tax free income from mutual funds then use this formula:- 
Some of my followers have very suspicious nature, so they comment on my earlier posts and doubt on my historical NAV data. 
They think my data are wrong so this time, I provide the link where I download data of past NAV which I used in above excel sheet, You may also use this link to download past NAV history of any mutual fund scheme and check my theory in your mutual fund scheme:- 
Finally, This is your time to comments, better what you think about it? If you try different % in above sheet and better % ratio, then do not forget to share it in comments.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Time to Start a SIP in Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund @ 9.90

Respected Readers,
Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund NFO was come in 03 July 2015 to 17 July 2015 at NAV of 10 per unit 

 My Regular followers knew that I always avoid to invest in NFO because after a NFO in most of cases we see price of fund NAV fall below NFO price read some past example here:-
Best European Mutual Fund in India
Reliance Infrastructure Fund Review
So as our earlier experience now NAV of Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund is fall below 10 and currant NAV of this fund is 9.90 only
So we now start a SIP of 1000/- per month in this fund
Which option we choose in growth and dividend fund:- If you are a new reader then you may confuse to see that 2 schemes is avalible in this fund 
Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund (G) or growth plan
Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund(D) or dividend plan
so which plan is best?
OK I have a separate detail article on this issue where I explain how dividend re-investment is 3 time better then growth plan, if you not read it yet then please read it here:-
So in light of above article I recommended to choose dividend re investment option but if you like to get regular monthly tax free income from this fund then choose growth plan and read this article to knew how to get regular monthly income from mutual fund growth plan:-
Now I tell you why I choose Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund in all international fund which invest in US market.
Actually Most of international mutual funds are fund of fund ( fund of fund means a mutual fund which hold units of another funds),  but Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund is directly invest in US stocks here is the situation of  Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund portfolio as on 31 March 2016
Name %
Mastercard 8.73
Express Scripts Holding Co 7.61
Baidu Sp ADR-A 7.56
The Priceline Group Inc 6.83
Alphabet Inc A 6.81
Blackrock Inc 6.76
Time Warner Inc. 6.68
WW Grainger Inc 5.21
Cooper Companies Inc 4.08
Cme Group Inc 3.79
ITC Holdings Corp 3.64
Discover Financial Services 3.38
Alphabet Inc 3.33
Carmax Inc 2.74
Ebay Inc 2.53
Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan Inc 1.46

So I think direct holding reduce fund management fees because if we buy a fund of fund then we pay fund management fees for both of funds.(one is original fund and  second is holding fund )
Recent Update:-
Buy MTNL @ 18.10

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